further work on discussion
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\section{Related Work}\label{sec:related_work}
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This section will introduce related work of both ovulation detection and ovulation prediction.
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First, we'll introduce early work on the detection of the ovulation based on biomarkers.
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Then, we'll show how others have used body temperature to predict ovulation and what their limitations are.
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Lastly, we will take a closer look at related work that uses other biomarkers as base, or as an addition to the body
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temperature for ovulation and fertility prediction.
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A variety of approaches have historically been explored for ovulation detection and prediction,
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ranging from hormonal assays to physiological signal tracking.
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@@ -73,7 +79,8 @@ For menstruation prediction, the model detected 70.70\% of menstruation days in
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These results indicate that the model performed well in regular cycles but struggled with irregularity, particularly in detecting the fertile window.
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Complementing academic efforts, several commercial products have adopted temperature-based tracking,
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such as \textit{Ava}~\cite{sl_ava_nodate}, \textit{Daysy}~\cite{electronics_zykluscomputer_nodate} or \textit{Trackle}~\cite{noauthor_trackle_nodate}.
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such as \textit{Ava}~\cite{sl_ava_nodate}, \textit{Daysy}~\cite{electronics_zykluscomputer_nodate}, \textit{Trackle}~\cite{noauthor_trackle_nodate}
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or \textit{Natural Cycles}~\cite{noauthor_natural_nodate}.
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However, these products typically rely on proprietary algorithms, and no peer-reviewed publications are available detailing their methodology or performance.
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This lack of transparency limits their scientific evaluation and comparability.
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In contrast, the present study provides an open and data-driven approach to ovulation prediction based on continuous temperature data, aiming to contribute reproducible evidence to the field.
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@@ -81,7 +88,7 @@ In contrast, the present study provides an open and data-driven approach to ovul
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\subsection{Other Physiological Signals}\label{subsec:other_physiolocical_signals}
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In addition to temperature, other physiological signals have been explored for ovulation and cycle phase prediction.
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As early as \citeyear{moreno_temporal_1988}, researchers investigated ovulation prediction based on the electrical resistance of salivary and vaginal secretions~\cite{moreno_temporal_1988}.
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As early as~\citeyear{moreno_temporal_1988}, researchers investigated ovulation prediction based on the electrical resistance of salivary and vaginal secretions~\cite{moreno_temporal_1988}.
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Their study analyzed 29 cycles from 11 women, with daily recordings of BBT, urinary LH, pelvic ultrasound, and ovulation predictor kit results.
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Participants were under the age of 35, had cycle lengths between 25 and 35 days, and had abstained from hormone therapies for at least two months prior to the study.
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@@ -92,7 +99,7 @@ These findings suggest that electrical resistance is a strong physiological mark
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A related modern implementation is the commercial product \textit{kegg}~\cite{noauthor_kegg_nodate}, which measures the electrical resistance of cervical mucus.
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The device uses an undisclosed algorithm to estimate fertility status based on these readings, although no peer-reviewed validation studies are currently available.
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\citeauthor{masuda_machine_2025} developed a machine learning algorithm to classify phases of the menstrual cycle
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In~\citeyear{masuda_machine_2025}, \citeauthor{masuda_machine_2025} developed a machine learning algorithm to classify phases of the menstrual cycle
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(follicular vs. luteal) based on sleeping heart rate, as recorded by a fitness tracker~\cite{masuda_machine_2025}.
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They used an XGBoost classifier for this binary task and additionally performed ovulation day prediction,
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although the details of this task were not fully specified.
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@@ -119,7 +126,7 @@ waking—they report classification accuracies between 0.843 and 0.864, dependin
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with very similar numbers for precision, recall, specificity and F1 score.
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Ovulation day prediction yielded an average absolute error between 3.6 and 4.1 days.
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\paragraph{Summary:}
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\subsection{Summary}\label{subsec:related_work_summary}
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While various physiological signals and modeling strategies have been explored for ovulation prediction,
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many existing studies are limited by small, highly selective datasets, assumptions of cycle regularity, or reliance on proprietary algorithms.
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The present work extends prior approaches by leveraging a large, heterogeneous dataset of real-world cycles and applying transparent,
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