further work on methodology
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@@ -4,6 +4,17 @@
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\section{Methodology}\label{sec:methodology}
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While prior studies have demonstrated the promise of physiological signals for ovulation detection and phase classification,
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many are limited by small sample sizes, rigid inclusion criteria, or non-transparent methodologies.
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Temperature has emerged as a potentially predictive signal, but existing work often lacks scalability or generalizability.
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This study extends previous approaches by leveraging a large, heterogeneous real-world dataset of high-resolution core body temperature
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readings to develop and evaluate machine learning models for real-time ovulation prediction.
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In addition to model development, special emphasis is placed on evaluating performance across irregular cycles and assessing
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the predictive value of low-noise, high-resolution temperature data.
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The following section outlines the methodology used, including data preprocessing,
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feature extraction, input encoding, and model architectures.
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% why did I select tft over other methods -> include examples of time series and why I belief a complex model could help
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% you did I apply it
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% implementation details
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@@ -368,6 +379,15 @@ fertility probability and ovulation-over indicator.
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Figure~\ref{fig:methodology_transformer_architecture} shows the overall architecture.
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The stacked inputs and outputs indicate batch processing.
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Model-specific architectural parameters are:
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\begin{itemize}
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\item \textbf{Input Length} — Number of time steps included in each input sequence.
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\item \textbf{Embedding dimension} — Dimensionality of the Transformer internal token representation.
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\item \textbf{Number of Encoder-Layers} — Number of encoder layers to stack
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\item \textbf{Number of Attention-Heads} — Number of attention heads to use in each layer
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\end{itemize}
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The specific values and tuning ranges for these parameters are discussed in Section~\ref{subsubsec:hyperparameter_tuning}.
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\subsubsection{Temporal Convolution Layer}
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\label{subsubsec:temporal_convolution_layer}
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@@ -439,7 +459,7 @@ Hyperparameter tuning was divided into two stages:
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(1) tuning of input-related parameters such as resampling rate, and
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(2) tuning of model-specific architectural parameters such as hidden size or attention heads.
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\paragraph{Input Parameter Tuning}% \mbox{}\\
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\paragraph{Input Parameter Tuning:}
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This stage involved identifying optimal settings for data preprocessing and input representation.
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Key variables included the resampling rate (temporal resolution) and historical context length (input window size).
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These parameters strongly influence the structure of the input signal and can significantly affect model performance.
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@@ -465,9 +485,9 @@ and whether incorporating data from previous cycles improves learning or introdu
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\centering
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\begin{tabular}{l>{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{0.45\linewidth}>{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{0.3\linewidth}}
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\toprule
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\textbf{Parameter} & \textbf{Description} & \textbf{Values Tested} \\
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\textbf{Parameter} & \textbf{Description} & \textbf{Values Tested} \\
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\midrule
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Window length & Historical context in days (input window size) & 10, 20, 40, 80, 160 \\
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Window length & Historical context in days (input window size) & 10, 20, 40, 80, 160 \\
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\bottomrule
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\end{tabular}
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\caption{Input-related hyperparameters for convolutional LSTM and Transformer hybrids.}
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@@ -480,10 +500,48 @@ while Table~\ref{tab:input_hyperparameters_conv} lists those for the convolution
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Note that convolutional models do not require an explicit resampling parameter, as they perform learned downsampling internally
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(see Section~\ref{subsubsec:temporal_convolution_layer}).
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\paragraph{Model Parameter Tuning}% \mbox{}\\
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Once suitable input configurations were established, model-specific hyperparameters were tuned.
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For LSTM-based models, this included hidden layer size and number of recurrent layers.
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For Transformer models, relevant parameters included the number of attention heads and encoder depth.
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\paragraph{Model Parameter Tuning}
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To identify the most suitable configuration for each model architecture, model-specific hyperparameters were tuned for optimal predictive performance.
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The goal was to balance model complexity and expressiveness in relation to the given input configuration.
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\begin{table}[htbp]
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\centering
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\setlength{\tabcolsep}{8pt} % adjust column spacing
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\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{1.2} % more row spacing
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\begin{tabular}{@{}p{0.28\textwidth}p{0.45\textwidth}p{0.20\textwidth}@{}}
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\toprule
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\textbf{Parameter} & \textbf{Description} & \textbf{Values Tested} \\
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\midrule
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Hidden Layer Size & Size of the LSTM hidden layer & 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 \\
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Number of LSTM Layers & Number of stacked LSTM layers & 1, 2, 4 \\
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\bottomrule
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\end{tabular}
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\caption{Model hyperparameters for the LSTM and convolutional-LSTM hybrid architectures.}
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\label{tab:lstm_model_hyperparameters}
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\end{table}
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\begin{table}[htbp]
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\centering
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\setlength{\tabcolsep}{8pt} % adjust column spacing
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\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{1.2} % more row spacing
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\begin{tabular}{@{}p{0.28\textwidth}p{0.45\textwidth}p{0.20\textwidth}@{}}
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\toprule
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\textbf{Parameter} & \textbf{Description} & \textbf{Values Tested} \\
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\midrule
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Embedding Dimension & Size of the internal token embedding & 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 \\
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Number of Encoder Layers & Number of stacked encoder layers & 1, 2, 4, 8 \\
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Number of Attention Heads & Number of attention heads per layer & 1, 2, 4, 8 \\
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\bottomrule
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\end{tabular}
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\caption{Model-related hyperparameters for the Transformer and Convolutional-Transformer-Hybrid architectures.}
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\label{tab:transformer_model_hyperparameters}
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\end{table}
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Tables~\ref{tab:lstm_model_hyperparameters} and~\ref{tab:transformer_model_hyperparameters} summarize the tested hyperparameters and value ranges
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for the LSTM-based and Transformer-based models, respectively.
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Note that the same settings were used for the hybrid models, as their architecture beyond the convolutional front end is structurally identical.
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\vspace{0.5em}
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We acknowledge that interactions between input and model parameters may influence final model performance,
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@@ -501,3 +559,16 @@ joint parameter space in a more efficient and principled manner.
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\subsubsection{Baseline Comparisons}\label{subsubsec:baseline_comparisons}
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\subsection{Ethical Considerations}\label{subsec:ethical_considerations}
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This study was conducted using pseudonymized data collected in accordance with the terms of service and privacy policy of the data provider, VivoSensMedical GmbH (Leipzig, Germany).
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All users whose data were included had consented to the use of their recordings for analytical purposes at the time of data collection.
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The study protocol was reviewed and approved by the provider's internal legal and scientific advisory team,
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which is responsible for ensuring ethical and regulatory compliance.
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All data used in this study were pseudonymized prior to access.
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No personal identifiers or sensitive metadata were included.
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Additional safeguards were implemented to ensure data confidentiality and integrity,
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including restricted access and use solely for the purposes of model development and evaluation.
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No compensation was provided to participants, as the data were originally collected as part of routine usage under the agreed terms.
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