Alex Blank
99 lines
4.5 KiB
TeX
99 lines
4.5 KiB
TeX
%! Author = alex
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%! Date = 3/6/25
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\section{Results}\label{sec:results}
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The previous section detailed the design and implementation of our ovulation prediction pipeline,
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including data preprocessing, feature engineering, input encoding, and the development of several deep learning architectures.
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We now present the results of our evaluation, focusing on the predictive accuracy of the proposed models across different temporal resolutions,
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cycle types, and user histories.
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Model performance is assessed using both overall metrics and biologically targeted subintervals,
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allowing for a nuanced comparison of approaches and their practical relevance to real-time fertility forecasting.
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% provide information about the training behaviour and statistic of the different models
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\subsection{Overall Model Performance Across Architectures}\label{subsec:overall_model_performance_across_architectures}
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\begin{figure}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{resources/figures/results/model_performance_overview}
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\caption{Overview of the performances of all model types including the baselines on 4 selected performance metrics.}
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\label{fig:results_performance_overview_by_model_type}
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\end{figure}
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\subsection{Fertility Probability Prediction Accuracy}\label{subsec:fertility_probability_precition_accuracy}
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\begin{landscape}
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\begin{table}[ht]
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\centering
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\caption{Model comparison for fertility prediction using MAE and MSE}
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\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\linewidth}
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\begin{tabular}{lllcccccc}
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\toprule
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\textbf{Model} & \textbf{Window} & \textbf{Daily} &
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\textbf{MAE$_{fert}$} & \textbf{MAE$_{fert,during}$} & \textbf{MAE$_{fert,non}$} &
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\textbf{MSE$_{fert}$} & \textbf{MSE$_{fert,during}$} & \textbf{MSE$_{fert,non}$} \\
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\midrule
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ModelA & 7 & Yes & 0.67 & 0.59 & 0.73 & 0.89 & 0.82 & 0.95 \\
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ModelB & 14 & No & 0.65 & 0.58 & 0.71 & 0.87 & 0.80 & 0.93 \\
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% More rows...
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\bottomrule
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\end{tabular}
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\end{adjustbox}
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\label{tab:fertility_comparison}
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\end{table}
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\end{landscape}
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% show why I selected the individual input configs for model config training
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% selected by best mse fertility, use 2nd best, as it provides basically the same performance, but more input data for more complex model configs
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\subsubsection{Performance Across Fertile Window}\label{subsubsec:fert_performance_across_fertile_window}
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\subsubsection{Impact of Input Resolution}\label{subsubsec:fert_impact_of_input_resolution}
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\begin{figure}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{resources/figures/results/lstm_fertility_results_by_input_length}
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\caption{Performance of LSTM models with different input window lengths and fixes input resolutions for the fertility probability targets MSE}
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\label{fig:results_performance_lstm_input_window_length}
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\end{figure}
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\subsubsection{Impact of Input Window Length}\label{subsubsec:fert_impact_of_historical_context}
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\begin{figure}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{resources/figures/results/lstm_fertility_results_by_input_length}
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\caption{Performance of LSTM models with different input resolutions and fixes input window lengths for the fertility probability targets MSE}
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\label{fig:results_performance_lstm_input_resolution}
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\end{figure}
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\subsubsection{Comparison with Baselines}\label{subsubsec:fert_comparison_with_baselines}
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\subsection{Ovulation-Over Prediction Accuracy}\label{subsec:ov_over_prediction_accuracy}
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\subsubsection{Performance around Ovulation}\label{subsubsec:ov_over_performance_around_ovulation}
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\subsubsection{Impact of Input Resolution}\label{subsubsec:ov_over_impact_of_input_resolution}
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\subsubsection{Impact of Input Window Length}\label{subsubsec:ov_over_impact_of_historical_context}
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\subsubsection{Comparison with Baselines}\label{subsubsec:ov_over_comparison_with_baselines}
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\subsection{Stratified Analysis}\label{subsec:stratified_analysis}
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\subsubsection{Regular vs Irregular Cycles}\label{subsubsec:regular_vs_irregular_cycles}
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\subsubsection{Influence of User History Depth}\label{subsubsec:influence_of_past_user_data}
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\subsection{Use-Case Evaluation Results}\label{subsec:use_case_evaluation_results}
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\subsubsection{Contraception Use-Case Results}\label{subsubsec:use_case_contraception_results}
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\subsubsection{Pregnancy Use-Case Results}\label{subsubsec:use_case_pregnancy_results}
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\subsection{Summary of Key Findings}\label{subsec:summary_of_key_findings}
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