added figures
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@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ However, variations, particularly in the follicular phase length, are common and
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Figure~\ref{fig:background_menstrual_cycle_physiology} provides a detailed overview of the hormonal and physiological changes
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throughout the menstrual cycle.
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\begin{figure}
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\begin{figure}[htbp]
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.6\textwidth]{background_menstrual_cycle_physiology}
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\caption{Physiological changes during the menstrual cycle~\cite{pedroso_menstrual_2022}.}
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@@ -50,17 +50,66 @@ throughout the menstrual cycle.
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Not every cycle results in ovulation—a phenomenon known as anovulation—which leads to a monophasic temperature pattern.
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Anovulation can have various causes, including hormonal imbalances, stress, or underlying health conditions~\cite{rosenfield_adolescent_2013}.
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\begin{figure}[htbp]
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{background_anovulatory_cycle}
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\caption{Example of a cycle without an ovulation and the resulting temperature rise}
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\label{fig:background_anovulation}
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\end{figure}
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Anovulation is reflected in temperature data as either an absence of a clear temperature rise or a rise
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that is insufficient in magnitude or duration to be considered a reliable indicator of ovulation.
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Distinguishing between ovulatory and anovulatory cycles is challenging, as the only definitive confirmation of
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successful ovulation in a clinical sense is a positive pregnancy test.
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Even ultrasound imaging can only confirm that an egg was released from its follicle—not whether it was fertilized or successfully implanted.
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Even ultrasound imaging can only confirm that an egg was released from its follicle—not whether it was successfully implanted or fertilized.
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Figure~\ref{fig:background_anovulation} shows a cycle that does not have an ovulation, and thus no resulting temperature rise.
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%TODO: find source for this
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To illustrate the diversity of real-world menstrual cycles, Figures~\ref{fig:background_long_cycle} and~\ref{fig:background_short_cycle}
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show examples of cycles that are significantly longer or shorter than a normative 28-day cycle.
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\begin{figure}[htbp]
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{background_long_cycle}
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\caption{Example of a long cycle with a length of 111 days}
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\label{fig:background_long_cycle}
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\end{figure}
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\begin{figure}[htbp]
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{background_short_cycle}
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\caption{Example of a short cycle with a length of 22 days}
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\label{fig:background_short_cycle}
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\end{figure}
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These irregularities appear not only on a per-cycle basis, but also across time within the same individual.
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Figures~\ref{fig:background_irregular_cycles} and~\ref{fig:background_regular_cycles}
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show examples of a woman with an irregular and a regular menstrual cycle pattern, respectively.
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Raw body core temperature readings are shown in light blue, with a red line indicating smoothing by local regression.
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Vertical dotted black lines mark the beginning of each cycle.
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The irregular example highlights how multiple parameters can vary between individuals:
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cycle length, timing of ovulation, temperature shift magnitude between phases, and intra-phase temperature variability.
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This multidimensional variability underscores the need for adaptive, data-driven models capable of learning personalized patterns---
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rather than relying on population-wide assumptions.
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\begin{figure}[htbp]
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{background_irregular_cycle_example}
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\caption{Example of a woman with irregular menstrual rhythm}
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\label{fig:background_irregular_cycles}
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\end{figure}
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\begin{figure}[htbp]]
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth]{background_regular_cycle_example}
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\caption{Example of a woman with regular menstrual rhythm}
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\label{fig:background_regular_cycles}
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\end{figure}
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%TODO: show plot of different cycle types
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\subsubsection{Fertility Prediction}\label{subsec:fertility_prediction}
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\subsubsection{Fertility Prediction}\label{subsubsec:fertility_prediction}
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Throughout the menstrual cycle, the chance of fertilization varies significantly.
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An egg cell released from the ovary during ovulation, can be fertilized for up to 24 hours.
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However, since male sperm cells can survive up to 6 days inside the female reproductive tract,
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@@ -82,7 +131,7 @@ is constrained by the precision of ovulation detection.
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This relationship underscores the necessity of developing reliable ovulation prediction models,
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as even small inaccuracies can significantly impact fertility assessments.
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\subsubsection{Physiological Signs of Ovulation}\label{subsec:physiological_signs}
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\subsubsection{Physiological Signs of Ovulation}\label{subsubsec:physiological_signs}
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Several physiological signs correlate with ovulation and can be used for prediction.
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As shown in Figure~\ref{fig:background_menstrual_cycle_physiology}, these include hormonal fluctuations (LH and FSH surges) and
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changes in body temperature.
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@@ -98,6 +147,8 @@ detecting the slight temperature rise that follows ovulation.
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Advances in wearable technology have further enabled continuous and automated temperature monitoring,
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improving accessibility and usability~\cite{alexander_fertilitatsmonitoring_2014, luo_detection_2020, yu_tracking_2022}.
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\subsection{Data and Measurement}\label{subsec:data_background}
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\subsection{Technical Background}\label{subsec:technological_background}
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\subsubsection{Time Series Analysis}\label{subsubsec:time_series_analysis}
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@@ -145,7 +196,7 @@ outputs at each time step.
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\begin{figure}
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\centering
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\includegraphics[width=0.7\textwidth]{recurrent_neural_network_unfold}
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\includegraphics[width=0.8\textwidth]{recurrent_neural_network_unfold}
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\caption{Schematic diagram of the unfolded structure of a recurrent neural network~\cite{fdeloche_english_2017}}
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\label{fig:rnn_unfolded}
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\end{figure}
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