started presentation work
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- title slide:
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- topic: "Ovulation Prediction with Machine Learning"
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- subtitle: "Comparing Deepl Learning Approaches for Real-World Ovulation Prediction"
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- introduction and motivation:
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- eye and ear catching introduction?
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- more than 50% of people are directly influenced by the menstrual cycle and its effects
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- understanding its patterns is essential, especially for those trying to conceive, PCOS patients, menopause, etc.
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- prediction of ovulation can help in family planning, fertility treatments, and understanding hormonal health
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- women's health is often uncharted territory in medical research
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- OV Basics:
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- more visuals, less text
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- little detour -> collection knowledge about the menstrual cycle is limited
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- explain phases and fertility over cycle, show diagram and actual curves
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- monophasic vs biphasic cycles
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- The Power of Data:
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- I work for company "VivoSens Medical" -> product "Ovularing"
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- product is biosensor for intravaginal body core temperature measurement, collect measurements every 5 minutes
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- extensive database of 60,000+ menstrual cycles with up to 150 days of data -> ~ 100 million data points
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- extensive context data such as age, weight, height, cycle length, and markers for cycle related events
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- long histories for many users -> up to 8 years of data
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- data that is not available to anyone else
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- makes ML approaches feasible
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- The Challenge:
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- ovulation is a complex biological process influenced by various factors
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- different goals, depending on use case: getting pregnant vs natural contraception
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- explain types of cycles, show what an ovulation looks like, fever, stress, etc. -> max 3 plots
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- traditional methods of prediction often rely on simple statistical algorithms or heuristics
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- existing machine learning models lack sufficient training data, either in number of cycles or data resolution
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- Huawei Band, Yu et al. 2022 -> 382 Cycles,
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- labeling is hard: -> ovulation, even with ultrasound, is not always clear
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- open research question: is temperature a sufficient predictor for ovulation, or only retrospective?
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- Cycle variability: cycles can vary significantly in length and pattern, making it difficult to create a one-size-fits-all model
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- some users have very regular cycles, while others have highly irregular ones (one is 30 days, the next is 70 days)
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- Approach:
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- inputs: show features
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- static user specific features: age, weight, height, average cycle length, std, num cycles, etc.
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- time dependent features: day of week, hour of day, month of year -> all sine / cosine encoded
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- time series data: raw temperature, rolling average, min and max ofer last 24 hours, etc.
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- targets: time until / since ovulation (linear regression), prob for biphasic cycle (binary classification)
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- train set of model: lstm, conv lstm, transformer decoder and conv with transformer decoder
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- use multiple input configurations -> different input window sizes, different sampling rates
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- evaluation on domain specific metrics: -> some are more important than others, depending on the use case
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- overall error in days
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- error before and after ovulation
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- error at ovulation
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- error 5 days before ovulation -> start of fertile window, most important for conception
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- how do errors change over the course of one users cycles?
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- visually show "training pipeline"
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- Current Status and Findings:
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- transformers perform best, especially with larger input windows
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- Lessons learned:
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- Multi GPU training is a deep rabbit hole, distributed systems ftw
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- HPC has its own challenges, slow I/O, misused resources, etc.
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- trend to overengineer, but usually that pays off in the end, especially configurability
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- Conclusion:
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-
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- Future Work:
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- more complex / better suited models for the task
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- better data preprocessing and feature engineering / frequency analysis
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- additional context data / biomarkers, i.e., hr, stress, sleep, etc
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- interpretable models -> Temporal Fusion Transformer derivative, etc.
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