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- title slide:
- topic: "Ovulation Prediction with Machine Learning"
- subtitle: "Comparing Deepl Learning Approaches for Real-World Ovulation Prediction"
- introduction and motivation:
- eye and ear catching introduction?
- more than 50% of people are directly influenced by the menstrual cycle and its effects
- understanding its patterns is essential, especially for those trying to conceive, PCOS patients, menopause, etc.
- prediction of ovulation can help in family planning, fertility treatments, and understanding hormonal health
- women's health is often uncharted territory in medical research
- OV Basics:
- more visuals, less text
- little detour -> collection knowledge about the menstrual cycle is limited
- explain phases and fertility over cycle, show diagram and actual curves
- monophasic vs biphasic cycles
- The Power of Data:
- I work for company "VivoSens Medical" -> product "Ovularing"
- product is biosensor for intravaginal body core temperature measurement, collect measurements every 5 minutes
- extensive database of 60,000+ menstrual cycles with up to 150 days of data -> ~ 100 million data points
- extensive context data such as age, weight, height, cycle length, and markers for cycle related events
- long histories for many users -> up to 8 years of data
- data that is not available to anyone else
- makes ML approaches feasible
- The Challenge:
- ovulation is a complex biological process influenced by various factors
- different goals, depending on use case: getting pregnant vs natural contraception
- explain types of cycles, show what an ovulation looks like, fever, stress, etc. -> max 3 plots
- traditional methods of prediction often rely on simple statistical algorithms or heuristics
- existing machine learning models lack sufficient training data, either in number of cycles or data resolution
- Huawei Band, Yu et al. 2022 -> 382 Cycles,
- labeling is hard: -> ovulation, even with ultrasound, is not always clear
- open research question: is temperature a sufficient predictor for ovulation, or only retrospective?
- Cycle variability: cycles can vary significantly in length and pattern, making it difficult to create a one-size-fits-all model
- some users have very regular cycles, while others have highly irregular ones (one is 30 days, the next is 70 days)
- Approach:
- inputs: show features
- static user specific features: age, weight, height, average cycle length, std, num cycles, etc.
- time dependent features: day of week, hour of day, month of year -> all sine / cosine encoded
- time series data: raw temperature, rolling average, min and max ofer last 24 hours, etc.
- targets: time until / since ovulation (linear regression), prob for biphasic cycle (binary classification)
- train set of model: lstm, conv lstm, transformer decoder and conv with transformer decoder
- use multiple input configurations -> different input window sizes, different sampling rates
- evaluation on domain specific metrics: -> some are more important than others, depending on the use case
- overall error in days
- error before and after ovulation
- error at ovulation
- error 5 days before ovulation -> start of fertile window, most important for conception
- how do errors change over the course of one users cycles?
- visually show "training pipeline"
- Current Status and Findings:
- transformers perform best, especially with larger input windows
- Lessons learned:
- Multi GPU training is a deep rabbit hole, distributed systems ftw
- HPC has its own challenges, slow I/O, misused resources, etc.
- trend to overengineer, but usually that pays off in the end, especially configurability
- Conclusion:
-
- Future Work:
- more complex / better suited models for the task
- better data preprocessing and feature engineering / frequency analysis
- additional context data / biomarkers, i.e., hr, stress, sleep, etc
- interpretable models -> Temporal Fusion Transformer derivative, etc.
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